Looking Beyond the Election Headlines
October 21, 2026 / Market Updates
The third quarter had its ups and downs, but the S&P 500 finished higher. Strong company profits and investment in artificial intelligence helped support stocks, while higher interest rates and global tensions created some bumps along the way.
As November’s midterm elections approach, you may be wondering what the results could mean for your investments. History offers some encouragement: since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 15.1% gain in the 12 months following midterms, excluding dividends. That’s no guarantee, but it’s a helpful reminder to keep election headlines in perspective.
Looking ahead, the fourth quarter has historically been favorable for stocks, and the year after midterms has tended to be the strongest of the four-year presidential cycle. Combined with improving expectations for company profits, those trends give us reasons for cautious optimism heading into year-end and 2027. Inflation, interest rates and world events will still influence the path forward, but there are opportunities worth watching as well.
Through it all, our focus remains on you—your goals, your financial plan and helping you make thoughtful decisions through changing markets.