The Investment Outlook for 2023
The Year Ahead Outlook: a Slow Economy, but Better Markets
It would be an understatement to say that last year was a bumpy ride. For a long time, we have valued the capital markets team at JP Morgan Asset Management for their ability to help make sense of the data and the state of the global economy. As we close out a tough year in the markets in 2022, here is their analysis of the 2023 forecast.
- Near-term recession is too close to call. However, lower inflation and slower growth over the next few years seem very likely.
- After a dreadful year, return prospects for bonds in 2023 look much better as the Fed concludes its rate hiking cycle. Investors can take advantage of higher yields in short-dated bonds while adding duration as a hedge against market volatility and maintaining a high quality bias in credit.
- Globally, 2023 should see substantial (albeit incomplete) normalization in inflation levels, a pause in central bank hikes and a hangover for the real economy from last year’s inflation surge and aggressive rate hikes. China may be an exception to the rule of global deceleration, with a slow (but bumpy) shift away from “zero COVID”.
- U.S. equity returns will be driven by earnings against a backdrop characterized by elevated market volatility. In this environment, companies with pricing power and stable cash flows – that are trading at reasonable valuations – are most attractive.
- While risks around the international growth outlook are high for 2023, they are also much better reflected in equity valuations (and currencies) – and “less bad” news can be enough to fuel a powerful rebound once the worst is priced into earnings expectations.
- Alternatives have benefited from an environment of easy money for the past decade – a trend that has come to an end. The new combination of higher rates and demand for capital will allow for more differentiation between winners and losers.
- ESG was confronted with headwinds in 2022, yet commitments from policymakers this year could fuel investments in sustainable technology and infrastructure for the next decade.
- Despite uncertainty on the horizon, significant valuation imbalances across markets mean there is more upside potential than downside risk in investing today.
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Congratulations to our financial advisor Evan Kvittem and his bride, Ketrin! The two had a sweet and beautiful wedding late August of 2022. We are honored to have this fantastic duo in our lives and practice. Please join us in congratulating the happy couple!
Another congratulations is in order for our advisor Sean Endersbe and his bride, Katy! Please join us in celebrating the newlyweds—they had the most gorgeous New Year’s Eve wedding at the Depot in Minneapolis!
New Staff in 2022!
We are excited to introduce our new advisor, Cody Pollock, who joined our Signature Wealth Management team in April this past year. Cody spent the last two years as a Financial Advisor at Thrivent Financial, and prior to that as a research analyst on the Royals Investment Fund. Cody is a graduate of Bethel University with a Bachelor of Arts in Business with an emphasis in Finance. He grew up in Eden Prairie and still lives in the Southwest Metro. In his free time, Cody enjoys fishing, hunting, and riding motorcycles at his family cabin in Akeley, MN. Cody is very excited to join our team and looks forward to meeting you in the coming months.
We are also excited to announce that Nakita Kirchner is joining our St. Louis Park office in the role of a paraplanner. She is actively working on getting licensed and is working with Mohammad and his team. Nakita graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2020 and has worked in administration for the past 5 years. She was born and raised in Minnesota and currently lives in St. Paul with her family. She loves getting the chance to chat with clients and is excited to meet everyone.
New Year’s Goals for 2023
We have officially entered 2023 and time is flying! New Year’s intentions can help us target our goals for the new year and beyond. Resolutions don’t have to be limited to physical health – it is crucial to take care of your financial health, as well. Here are a few tips that can help you get started.
1. Start Investing – Use the new year as an impetus to start investing or simply increase your existing retirement savings. Most retirement plans at work (401k’s, 403b’s) will see a slight increase in their contribution caps in 2023 to $22,500 with a $7,500 catch-up contribution if you are over age 50. Traditional and Roth IRA’s see an increase at $6,500 a year with a $1,000 catch-up if you are over age 50. See the Tax Corner update for more increases in allowed contribution amounts. You still have until tax-filing deadline (April 18th, 2023) to get your 2022 contributions completed.
2. Complete a Financial Plan – this is a great time to review your financial goals or set new ones for the new year and beyond. Focus on key tasks that will help you stay on track, such as budgeting, paying off debt, building your cash reserves, etc. Seek a financial advisor to help you in all aspects of planning, from cash flow to retirement and estate planning. Focus on living within your means, look for a higher paying job, or side hustle to increase income.
3. Check your credit report – use the following website to check your credit reports for free from any of the three credit reporting agencies – Experian, Equifax, or TransUnion. For a nominal fee, you can also obtain your score. Use these to monitor your credit report, close unwanted or old accounts, or place a freeze on your account to protect against unauthorized account opening.
4. Review your existing investments and adjust your risk tolerance to your age or goals as needed. Make sure to rebalance your accounts, especially after the tumultuous year we had in 2022. Re-evaluate your work benefits and make sure you are properly covered for unexpected events, too. This includes, but is not limited to, health, disability, and life insurance. This is also a great time to review your beneficiary information.
5. Assemble your financial team – hiring a financial advisor can help provide you with the knowledge to navigate all aspects of your financial lives and help regulate emotions that come with investing in the markets. An advisor, along with a great tax preparer (or CPA) and estate planning attorney, are key people to make sure all aspects of your plan are buttoned up and ready to tackle the new year!
Good to Know
The Department of Homeland Security has extended the deadline for REAL ID requirements. The full enforcement date has been extended 24 months, meaning the new deadline is May 7th, 2025. Older versions of driver’s licenses and identification cards will no longer be accepted by TSA and other government agencies at that time.
For more information, visit the Department of Homeland Security’s website here.
2022 had its array of tax changes, and 2023 will be no exception. Below is a short list of these changes for 2023.
Retirement plan contribution limits
• 401(k) – increased to $22,500 + $7,500 for age 50+
• Simple IRA – increased to $15,500+ $3,500 for age 50+
• Roth IRA – increased to $6,500+ $1,000 for age 50+
Annual gift exclusion
• Increased to $17,000 per recipient (up from 2022)
Lifetime estate/gift exemption
• Federal – increased to $12.92 million
• Increased to age 73, raises to 75 in 2032
Capital gains rates
• 0%/15%/20% depending on your taxable income
Child tax credit
• $2,000 per child
Tax filing deadline will be April 18th, 2023.
We Love Introductions!
If you know of a friend or family member who has financial planning as one of their new year goals, we are happy to help! We would love an introduction.
Please reach out to your financial professional or check out our website at www.signaturewealthmn.com.
Securities and investment advisory services offered through SagePoint Financial, Inc. (SPF), member FINRA/SIPC. SPF is separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products or services referenced here are independent of SPF. SPF does not provide tax or legal advice. PLEASE NOTE: The information being provided is strictly as a courtesy. When you link to any of the web sites provided here, you are leaving this web site. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of the information provided at these web sites. This material represents an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. It is not guaranteed as to accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. It should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Neither Asset Allocation nor Diversification guarantee a profit or protect against a loss during a declining market. They are methods used to help manage investment risk. Rebalancing can entail transactional costs and tax consequences that should be considered when determining a rebalancing strategy.
St. Louis Park office: 5775 Wayzata Blvd, Suite 360, St. Louis Park, MN 55416 | Phone: 952.388.6390
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